U-30% kagesi womhlaba uvela kumandla avuselelekayo, futhi i-China ibe negalelo elikhulu

Ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla omhlaba kufinyelela ezimpambanweni ezibucayi.

NgoMeyi 8, ngokombiko wakamuva ovela ethangini lokucabanga lamandla omhlaba i-Ember: Ngo-2023, ngenxa yokukhula kwelanga nomoya.

ukuphehlwa kukagesi, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi avuselelekayo kuzobalelwa kuma-30% okuphehlwa kwamandla omhlaba okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili.

Unyaka ka-2023 ungase ube yingqophamlando lapho ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuphakeme kakhulu embonini yamandla.

“Ikusasa lamandla avuselelekayo selifikile.Amandla elanga, ikakhulukazi, athuthuka ngokushesha kunanoma ubani obekucabanga.Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni

kusukela emkhakheni wezamandla kungenzeka kunyuke kakhulu ngo-2023 - okuyinkathi yoshintsho olukhulu emlandweni wamandla."Inhloko ye-Ember Global of Insights uDave Jones uthe.

U-Yang Muyi, umhlaziyi wenqubomgomo yamandla aphezulu kwa-Ember, uthe okwamanje, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga kugxile kakhulu.

I-China kanye nezomnotho ezithuthukile.Kuhle kakhulu ukusho ukuthi i-China izokwenza umnikelo omkhulu emoyeni womhlaba kanye

ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga ngo-2023. Ukukhiqizwa kwayo okusha kwamandla elanga kubalele u-51% wengqikithi yomhlaba wonke, kanye nomoya wawo omusha

amandla abalelwa ku-60%.Umthamo wamandla elanga nomoya waseShayina kanye nokukhula kokuphehlwa kukagesi kuzohlala kusezingeni eliphezulu

eminyakeni ezayo.

Umbiko uveza ukuthi leli yithuba elingakaze libonwe emazweni akhetha ukuba sekhaleni lokuhlanzeka.

ikusasa lamandla.Ukwandiswa kwamandla ahlanzekile ngeke kusize kuphela ukukhipha ikhabhoni emkhakheni wamandla kuqala, kodwa futhi kuzohlinzeka ngokwandayo

ukuhlinzekwa okudingekayo ukufaka ugesi kuwo wonke umnotho, okuzoba amandla aguqulayo ngempela ekulweni nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Cishe amaphesenti angama-40 kagesi emhlabeni avela emithonjeni yamandla enekhabhoni ephansi

Umbiko othi “2024 Global Electricity Review” okhishwe yi-Ember usekelwe kumasethi edatha wamazwe amaningi (okuhlanganisa nedatha evela ku-

I-International Energy Agency, i-Eurostat, iNhlangano yeziZwe kanye neminyango ehlukahlukene yezibalo kazwelonke), ehlinzeka nge

Ukubuka konke okuphelele kohlelo lwamandla omhlaba ngo-2023. Lo mbiko uhlanganisa amazwe amakhulu angama-80 emhlabeni jikelele,

ibalwa ku-92% wesidingo sikagesi emhlabeni jikelele, kanye nedatha yomlando yamazwe angama-215.

Ngokombiko, ngo-2023, ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla elanga nawomoya, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi avuselelekayo emhlabeni jikelele.

izobalelwa ngaphezu kwama-30% okokuqala ngqa.Cishe amaphesenti angama-40 kagesi emhlabeni avela emithonjeni yamandla enekhabhoni ephansi,

kuhlanganise namandla enuzi.Ukuqina kwe-CO2 kokuphehlwa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke sekufinyelele irekhodi eliphansi, i-12% ngaphansi kwenani eliphakeme kakhulu ngo-2007.

Amandla elanga angumthombo oyinhloko wokukhula kukagesi ngo-2023 nokugqamisa ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo.Ngo-2023,

umthamo wokukhiqiza ugesi welanga omusha emhlabeni wonke uzoba ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kunamalahle.Amandla elanga agcina indawo yawo

njengomthombo kagesi okhula ngokushesha kakhulu unyaka we-19 ilandelana futhi wadlula umoya njengomthombo omkhulu kakhulu omusha

ugesi unyaka wesibili ilandelana.Ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele phezulu okusha.

Umbiko uphawule ukuthi umthamo wokuhlanza owengeziwe ngo-2023 ubuyokwanela ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kukagesi wezinsalela

ngo-1.1%.Nokho, izimo zesomiso ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba onyakeni odlule ziye zacindezela ukukhiqizwa kukagesi ngamanzi

ezingeni layo eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu.Ukushoda kukagesi ophehlwa ngamanzi kwenziwe ngenxa yokwanda kokuphehlwa kwamalahle, osekwenzekile

kuholele ekwenyukeni ngo-1% kokukhishwa komkhakha wamandla emhlabeni jikelele.Ngo-2023, ama-95% okukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamandla amalahle azokwenzeka kwezine

amazwe ahlaselwe kakhulu isomiso: iChina, iNdiya, iVietnam neMexico.

U-Yang Muyi uthe njengoba umhlaba ubheka ukubaluleka okwandayo emgomweni wokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, amazwe amaningi ezomnotho asafufusa.

bayashesha futhi bazama ukubamba.IBrazil iyisibonelo sakudala.Izwe, ngokomlando lalithembele kugesi ophehlwa ngamanzi,

ibisebenza kakhulu ekuhlukaniseni izindlela zayo zokukhiqiza amandla eminyakeni yamuva nje.Ngonyaka odlule, umoya namandla elanga

kubalwe u-21% wokuphehlwa kukagesi e-Brazil, uma kuqhathaniswa no-3.7% kuphela ngo-2015.

I-Afrika iphinde ibe namandla amakhulu ahlanzekile angasetshenzisiwe njengoba iyikhaya lengxenye yesihlanu yabantu emhlabeni wonke futhi inelanga elikhulu

okungenzeka, kodwa isifunda njengamanje siheha kuphela u-3% wokutshalwa kwezimali kwamandla omhlaba.

Ngokombono wesidingo samandla, isidingo sikagesi emhlabeni wonke sizokhuphuka sifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu ngo-2023, nokwenyuka

627TWh, okulingana nesidingo sonke sase-Canada.Kodwa-ke, ukukhula komhlaba wonke ngo-2023 (2.2%) kungaphansi kwesilinganiso sakamuva

iminyaka, ngenxa yokwehla okuphawulekayo kwesidingo emazweni e-OECD, ikakhulukazi i-United States (-1.4%) kanye neYurophu

Inyunyana (-3.4%).Ngokuphambene, isidingo eChina sikhule ngokushesha (+6.9%).

Ngaphezu kwesigamu sokukhula kwesidingo sikagesi ngo-2023 kuzovela kubuchwepheshe obuhlanu: izimoto zikagesi, amaphampu okushisa,

ama-electrolyser, air conditioning kanye nezikhungo zedatha.Ukusabalala kwalobu buchwepheshe kuzosheshisa ukufunwa kukagesi

ukukhula, kodwa ngenxa yokuthi ukufakwa kukagesi kusebenza kahle kakhulu kunamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi, isidingo samandla sisonke sizokwehla.

Kodwa-ke umbiko uveze nokuthi njengoba kushesha ukufakwa kukagesi, ingcindezi elethwa ubuchwepheshe.

njengokuhlakanipha kokwenziwa kuyanda, futhi isidingo sesiqandisi siye sakhula nakakhulu.Kulindeleke ukuthi

isidingo sizosheshisa esikhathini esizayo, okuphakamisa umbuzo kagesi ohlanzekile.Ingabe izinga lokukhula lingahlangabezana ne

ukukhula kwesidingo sikagesi?

Isici esibalulekile ekukhuleni kwesidingo sikagesi ukupholisa umoya, okuzobalelwa ku-0.3%

wokusetshenziswa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023. Kusukela ngowezi-2000, izinga lokukhula kwawo ngonyaka belilokhu lizinzile ku-4% (likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-5% ngo-2022).

Kodwa-ke, ukungasebenzi kahle kuseyinselele enkulu ngoba, naphezu kwegebe elincane lezindleko, ama-air conditioner amaningi athengisiwe

emhlabeni jikelele zisebenza kahle ngesigamu njengobuchwepheshe besimanje.

Izikhungo zedatha nazo zidlala indima ebalulekile ekuqhubekiseni isidingo somhlaba wonke, zibe negalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwesidingo sikagesi

2023 njenge-air conditioning (+90 TWh, +0.3%).Ngokukhula kwesidingo samandla saminyaka yonke kulezi zikhungo sifinyelela cishe

U-17% kusukela ngo-2019, ukusebenzisa amasistimu okupholisa asezingeni eliphezulu kungathuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwamandla esikhungo sedatha okungenani ngama-20%.

U-Yang Muyi uthe ukubhekana nokukhula kwesidingo sikagesi kungenye yezinselelo ezinkulu ezibhekene noguquko lwamandla omhlaba.

Uma ucabangela isidingo esengeziwe esizovela embonini ye-decarbonizing ngokufaka ugesi, ugesi

ukukhula kwesidingo kuzoba ngaphezulu nakakhulu.Ukuze ugesi ohlanzekile uhlangabezane nesidingo esikhulayo sikagesi, kunezinsimbi ezimbili ezibalulekile:

ukusheshisa ukukhula kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani (ikakhulukazi kwabavelayo

izimboni zobuchwepheshe ezinesidingo esikhulu sikagesi).

Ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kubaluleke kakhulu ekuhlangabezaneni nesidingo esikhulayo samandla ahlanzekile.Esimeni Sezulu Se-United Nations sama-28

Inkomfa yoshintsho e-Dubai, abaholi bomhlaba bathembise ukuphinda kabili ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle kwamandla ngonyaka ngo-2030. Lokhu

ukuzibophezela kubalulekile ekwakheni ikusasa likagesi ohlanzekile njengoba kuzonciphisa ingcindezi kugridi.

Kuzoqala inkathi entsha yokwehla kwezinga elingcolisayo embonini kagesi

U-Ember ubikezela ukwehla okuncane kokukhiqizwa kwamandla kaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi ngo-2024, okubangela ukwehla okukhulu eminyakeni elandelayo.

Ukukhula kwesidingo ngo-2024 kulindeleke ukuthi kube phezulu kunango-2023 (+968 TWh), kodwa ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamandla ahlanzekile

okulindeleke ukuba kube kukhulu (+1300 TWh), kube nomthelela ekwehleni ngo-2% ekuphehlisweni kukaphethiloli wezinsalela zomhlaba wonke (-333 TWh).Kulindelwe

ukukhula kukagesi ohlanzekile kunike abantu ithemba lokuthi inkathi entsha yokwehla kwesisi esiphuma emkhakheni kagesi siyinkathi entsha

esezoqala.

Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, ukuthunyelwa kokukhiqizwa kwamandla ahlanzekile, okuholwa amandla elanga nomoya, kubambezele ukukhula.

wokukhiqiza amandla kaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi cishe ngokuphindwe kabili kokuthathu.Ngenxa yalokho, ukukhiqizwa kukagesi wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi engxenyeni yomnotho womhlaba

idlule umvuthwandaba wayo okungenani eminyakeni emihlanu edlule.Amazwe e-OECD ahamba phambili, ngokuphuma komkhakha kagesi ngokuphelele

inyuke ngo-2007 futhi yehle ngamaphesenti angama-28 kusukela lapho.

Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, ukuguqulwa kwamandla kuzongena esigabeni esisha.Njengamanje, ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli wezinsalela emhlabeni jikelele

nakanjani izoqhubeka nokwehla, okuholela ekwehleni kwekhabhoni ephumayo embonini.Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, ukwanda kokuhlanzeka

ugesi, oholwa yilanga nomoya, kulindeleke ukuthi udlule ukukhula kwesidingo samandla futhi unciphise ngempumelelo ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli

kanye nezikhithi.

Lokhu kubalulekile ekufezeni izinhloso zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele.Ukuhlaziya okuningi kuthole ukuthi umkhakha kagesi

kufanele kube ngowokuqala ukwenza i-decarbonise, nalokhu okuhlosiwe okuzofinyelelwa ngo-2035 emazweni e-OECD kanye no-2045

umhlaba wonke.

Umkhakha wamandla njengamanje unokukhishwa kwekhabhoni okuphezulu kakhulu kunoma iyiphi imboni, ekhiqiza ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yezinto eziphathelene namandla

Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2.Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi ugesi ongakwazi ukuhlanza indawo yezinto ezimbiwa phansi ezisetshenziswa ezinjinini zezimoto namabhasi, amabhayela, iziko

kanye nezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza, futhi kuyisihluthulelo sokuthutha i-decarbonizing, ukufudumeza kanye nezimboni eziningi.Ukusheshisa uguquko

toa Umnotho ohlanzekile kagesi oqhutshwa umoya, ilanga neminye imithombo yamandla ahlanzekile uzothuthukisa umnotho kanye kanye

ukukhula, ukwandisa umsebenzi, ukuthuthukisa ikhwalithi yomoya kanye nokuthuthukisa amandla okubusa, ukuzuza izinzuzo eziningi.

Futhi ukuthi ukukhishwa kwegesi yehla ngokushesha kangakanani kuzoncika ekutheni amandla ahlanzekile akhiwa ngokushesha kangakanani.Umhlaba usufinyelele ukuvumelana nge

ipulani yokuvelela iyadingeka ukuze kuncishiswe ukungcola.Engqungqutheleni Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu (COP28) ngoDisemba odlule,

Abaholi bomhlaba bafinyelele isivumelwano esiyingqophamlando sokuphinda kathathu amandla okukhiqiza amandla avuselelekayo emhlabeni ngo-2030. Umgomo uzoletha

isabelo somhlaba wonke sikagesi ovuselelekayo siye kuma-60% ngowezi-2030, okucishe kunciphise ukukhishwa kwegesi ephuma embonini kagesi ngesigamu.Abaholi nabo

kuvunyelwene ku-COP28 ukuphinda kabili ukusebenza kahle kwamandla ngonyaka ngo-2030, okubalulekile ekufezekiseni amandla aphelele okufakwa kukagesi

kanye nokugwema ukukhula kwesidingo sikagesi.

Nakuba ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya nelanga kukhula ngokushesha, ukugcinwa kwamandla kanye nobuchwepheshe begridi kungaqhubeka kanjani?Lapho i-

ingxenye yokuphehlwa kwamandla avuselelekayo iyanda, indlela yokuqinisekisa ukuzinza nokwethembeka kwamandla

isizukulwane?U-Yang Muyi uthe ukuhlanganisa inani elikhulu lamandla avuselelekayo nokushintshashintsha kwamandla kagesi ku

isistimu yamandla Ukuhlela okuphumelelayo nokuxhumeka kwegridi kuyadingeka, ngokugxila ekuguquguqukeni kwesistimu yamandla.Ukuvumelana nezimo

kuba semqoka ekulinganiseni igridi lapho isizukulwane esincike esimweni sezulu, njengomoya nelanga, sidlula noma siwa

ngaphansi kwesidingo samandla.

Ukwandisa ukuguquguquka kwesistimu yamandla kubandakanya ukusebenzisa amasu ahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ukwakha izindawo zokugcina amandla,

ukuqinisa ingqalasizinda yegridi, ukujulisa izinguquko ezimakethe zikagesi, kanye nokukhuthaza ukubamba iqhaza kwesidingo.

Ukuxhumana kwezifunda ezihlukene kubaluleke kakhulu ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukwaba okusebenzayo okuyisipele kanye nomthamo oyinsalela

izifunda ezingomakhelwane.Lokhu kuzonciphisa isidingo somthamo wendawo owedlulele.Isibonelo, i-India isebenzisa ukuhlanganisa imakethe

izindlela zokuqinisekisa ukusatshalaliswa okuphumelelayo kokuphehlwa kukagesi ezikhungweni zokudinga, ukukhuthaza igridi ezinzile kanye

ukusetshenziswa ngendlela efanele kwamandla avuselelekayo ngokusebenzisa izindlela zemakethe.

Umbiko uveza ukuthi nakuba ubuchwepheshe begridi ehlakaniphile namabhethri asethuthuke kakhulu futhi asetshenziselwe

ukugcina ukuzinza kokukhiqizwa kwamandla ahlanzekile, ucwaningo olwengeziwe ngobuchwepheshe bokugcina isikhathi eside lusadingeka

ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle nokusebenza kahle kwezinhlelo zamandla ahlanzekile zesikhathi esizayo.

I-China idlala indima ebalulekile

Uhlaziyo lombiko luveza ukuthi ukusheshisa ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo: uhulumeni onesifiso esisezingeni eliphezulu.

imigomo, izindlela zokukhuthaza, izinhlelo eziguquguqukayo kanye nezinye izici ezibalulekile zingakhuthaza ukukhula okusheshayo kwelanga nomoya

ukukhiqiza amandla.

Lo mbiko ugxile ekuhlaziyeni isimo saseShayina: I-China idlala indima ebalulekile ekukhuthazeni uguquko lwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.

I-China ingumholi womhlaba jikelele ekuphehlisweni kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga, enesizukulwane esikhulu kunazo zonke esiphelele kanye nesiphezulu kakhulu ngonyaka

ukukhula esikhathini esingaphezu kweminyaka eyishumi.Yandisa ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga ngesivinini esikhulu, iguqula

uhlelo lwamandla olukhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni.Ngo-2023 kuphela, i-China izonikela ngaphezu kwengxenye yamandla amasha omoya namandla elanga emhlabeni

isizukulwane, esibalelwa ku-37% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi elanga nomoya.

Ukukhula kokukhishwa kwegesi okuvela emkhakheni wamandla waseShayina kwehlile eminyakeni yakamuva.Kusukela ngo-2015, ukukhula emoyeni namandla elanga

e-China ibambe iqhaza elibalulekile ekugcineni ukungcola okuvela emkhakheni wamandla wezwe ngaphansi ngo-20% kunalokho obekungaba khona.

kungenjalo kube.Kodwa-ke, naphezu kokukhula okuphawulekayo kweShayina kumthamo wamandla ahlanzekile, amandla ahlanzekile azohlanganisa kuphela ama-46%

yesidingo sikagesi omusha ngo-2023, namalahle asavala u-53%.

Unyaka wezi-2024 kuzoba unyaka obalulekile eChina ukuthi ifinyelele inani eliphakeme lesisi esiphuma embonini kagesi.Ngenxa yejubane nesikali

wokwakhiwa kwamandla ahlanzekile eShayina, ikakhulukazi amandla omoya namandla elanga, iChina kungenzeka ukuthi isifinyelele isiqongo se

ukukhishwa komkhakha wamandla ngo-2023 noma kuzofinyelela lesi senzakalo esiyingqopha-mlando ngo-2024 noma ngo-2025.

Ukwengeza, ngenkathi iChina yenze intuthuko enkulu ekuthuthukiseni amandla ahlanzekile kanye nokufaka ugesi emnothweni wayo, izinselele

kuhlala kunjengoba umfutho wekhabhoni wokuphehlwa kukagesi waseShayina uhlala uphezulu kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke.Lokhu kugqamisa

isidingo semizamo eqhubekayo yokwandisa amandla ahlanzekile.

Ngokumelene nokwasemuva kwezitayela zomhlaba, umzila wokuthuthuka waseShayina emkhakheni wamandla ubumba inguquko yomhlaba.tion

ukuze ahlanze amandla.Ukukhula okusheshayo komoya namandla elanga kwenze iChina yaba umdlali obalulekile ekuphenduleni umhlaba wonke enkingeni yesimo sezulu.

Ngo-2023, ukuphehlwa kukagesi welanga nomoya waseShayina kuzobalelwa ku-37% wokuphehlwa kukagesi emhlabeni, kanye nokuphehlwa kwamalahle.

ukuphehlwa kukagesi kuzoba ngaphezu kwesigamu sokuphehlwa kukagesi emhlabeni.Ngo-2023, i-China izolandisa okwengeziwe

ngaphezu kwengxenye yezwe elisha lokuphehla umoya namandla elanga.Ngaphandle kokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga

kusukela ngo-2015, ukukhishwa komkhakha wamandla e-China bekuzokwenyuka ngamaphesenti angama-21 ngo-2023.

UChristina Figueres, owayenguNobhala Omkhulu we-UNFCCC, uthe: “Inkathi kaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi isifinyelele esimeni esifanele nesingenakugwemeka.

ekugcineni, njengoba imiphumela yombiko ikwenza kucace.Lesi yiphuzu elibalulekile loshintsho: ikhulu leminyaka elidlule Ubuchwepheshe Obuphelelwe yisikhathi obungakwazi

isikhathi eside ukuncintisana nokuqanjwa okusha kanye nejika lezindleko eziwayo zamandla avuselelekayo kanye nesitoreji kuzokwenza konke

thina kanye nomhlaba esiphila kuwo kangcono ngenxa yawo.”